Mark Carney says he has considered possibility of US military action against Canada

September 24, 2026

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has publicly acknowledged that his government has evaluated the unlikely scenario of potential U.S. military action against Canada, describing it as an "extreme tail risk" requiring responsible contingency planning. This revelation comes amid heightened tensions between the two nations following President Donald Trump's repeated references to Canada as a potential 51st state and an escalating trade dispute involving reciprocal tariffs. Despite these strains, Carney maintains he has a functional working relationship with Trump, with frequent direct communication between the leaders.

Who is affected

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his administration
President Donald Trump and the U.S. government
Canadian military forces (fewer than 200,000 active-duty and reserve troops)
U.S. military forces (more than 2 million active-duty and reserve troops)
Canadian and American citizens impacted by trade tensions and tariffs
Both countries' economies affected by the ongoing trade war

What action is being taken

Carney's administration is preparing for extreme risk scenarios involving potential U.S. military action
Canada is boosting defense spending
The U.S. and Canada are exchanging tit-for-tat tariffs on various products
Carney and Trump are speaking frequently by phone about bilateral issues

Why it matters

This situation represents an unprecedented deterioration in U.S.-Canada relations, with a NATO ally seriously considering the possibility of American military aggression for the first time in modern history. The acknowledgment highlights how severely Trump's rhetoric about annexing Canada and the escalating trade war have damaged trust between these historically close partners. The massive military imbalance makes Canada particularly vulnerable, which explains the urgency of increased defense spending and strategic Arctic positioning. Beyond bilateral concerns, this tension threatens continental security cooperation and economic stability in North America.

What's next

Carney believes there is still a path to resume trade negotiations with the U.S.
The direct communication channel between Carney and Trump is expected to continue

Read full article from source: BBC